中共〝两会〞前夕，人民币暴跌，房产大幅降价。日前，媒体报导地产界大亨潘石屹也凑上热闹，紧随香港富商李嘉诚抛售资产，甚至中共的官员也表示〝房地产房价已到达拐点，房地产泡沫破灭呼声四起。有业内人士说，2014年 是房地产开发商的〝逃命年〞，更有专家惊人预测：大陆一线城市房价将跌80%。
大陆 媒体报导，本周二，3月4号，出席政协会议的中共国务院住房城乡建设部（住建部）副部长齐骥被记者围堵，在记者追问下，齐骥透露，2014年房地产房价已到达拐点。
北京《国情内参》期刊首席研究员巩胜利：〝我不知道中国 住房部的副部长他讲的这个问题 ，他是讲的房地产价格是要掉下来，还是中国的房地产依然有钱，还是讲中国房地产能够让老百姓买得起。〞
北京《国情内参》期刊首席研究员巩胜利表示，不管齐骥这个房地产〝拐点〞隐含什么意思，但是，中国的房地产形势已经很严峻了。
2月25号，人民币即期汇率发生无预期暴跌，当天下挫282点。 28号，人民币对美元即期汇率一度暴跌（超过500点），盘中最低触及6.1808，跌幅达0.86%。人民币即期汇率从1月13号6.04附近，贬值到6.18，贬值幅度已经超过2%。
《京华时报》3月3号报导，北京2月新房成交量创7年低点，商品住宅均价降5.98%。
曾经一度逼近北京、上海、广州等一线城市的杭州楼市，打响了马年楼市降价的〝第一枪〞。 2月18号，杭州〝北海公园〞项目宣布清盘，随后，多地接连跟进降价，降幅高达数千元。而广州也出现楼盘打折促销，价格降到万元以下。
巩胜利：〝美国QE的实施，现在中国人民币也在跌的很厉害，28号这一天跌了500点比美元，所以现在中国市场上的钱、房地产从哪里来钱。〞
3月4号，〝SOHO中国〞公司董事长潘石屹，在公布公司去年（2013年）年报的同时表示，他对当前及未来 的地产形势不乐观。他认为，中国的房地产土地价格奇高，同时金融的风险跟房地产的风险是紧紧相连，第三方存款、委托理财、信托产品的量越来越大，但对应产品的质量又不很高，这种风险随时都会爆发。
大陆《证券日报》报导，2月28号，〝 SOHO中国〞宣布，将上海的〝SOHO海伦广场〞和〝SOHO静安广场〞及权益，全部出售给大陆〝金融街控股股份有限公司〞，总交易金额为人民币52亿3000万元。
业内人士表示，〝 SOHO中国〞41亿元的投资成本，加上近三年的资金成本和管理成本等财务费用，仅溢价11亿2600万元，溢价率甚至不足27.4%，低于业界保守预期的30%就将它出售了。这代表潘石屹看淡上海商业地产，紧跟李嘉诚脚步，主动抛售上海资产。
巩胜利表示，中国经济规模是靠金融海啸爆发后，央行滥发4万亿的大投资膨胀起来的。
巩胜利：〝中国经济的脆弱点就在这里，它是突然爆发起来的，它膨胀里面包括泡沫，所以它的风险要比任何国家可能都要高很多，因为它没有基础、也没有资本的来源。〞
巩胜利还表示，目前房地产的钱来源于中国银行信托公司的大量投资。而今年，信托公司到期的债券超过10万亿，这10万亿、至少80%都进了房地产。
北京〝天则经济研究所〞所长助理段绍译认为，由于中国目前房子太多，泡沫早已存在，即使人民币不贬值，房产也要破灭，房价也要跌。
大陆财经评论人士〝牛刀〞表示，当货币泡沫破灭的时候，中国完全依赖货币超发拉动的经济增长已经到头了。这个过程结束后，中国经济的本质就展示出来，一线城市房价将会跌去80%。
采访编辑/易如 后制/钟元
China’s First-Tier Cities’ Property Price Will Fall By 80 Percent
Before the annual session of China’s National People’s Congress,
Reminbi (RMB) rapidly devalued, and the real
estate price largely dropped.
Recently, media has reported that real estate mogul Pan Shiyi
followed Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shine, by selling his assets.
Some officials also said that “the property price is changing
direction, thus reaching an inflection point.
Many people have also spoken of when the
bubble will burst.
Experts have forecast 2014 a year for real estate business people
to be running away from this dire situation.
Some people also speculate that property prices in first-tier cities
in Mainland China will fall by as much as 80 percent.
Chinese media reported that Qi Ji, Deputy Minister of Housing
and Urban-Rural Development, was questioned
by journalists on March 4.
Qi revealed that real estate prices in 2014
has reached a turning point.
Gong Shengli, leading senior researcher of a financial magazine
in China: “I am not sure what the minister’s words meant.
Does it refer to the price of homes falling or the real estate sector
still having money, or does he mean civilians can afford homes?”
Gong Shengli says that it doesn’t matter what Qi’s “inflection
point” meant, the real estate situation has become serious now.
On Feb. 25, RMB spot exchange rate, unexpectedly
dropped down to 282 points.
On Feb. 28, RMB exchange rate to US Dollar had dropped
to over 500 points.
The lowest rate of the day reached 6.1808, which is a
drop of 0.86 percent.
RMB spot exchange rate decreased from 6.04
on Jan. 13 to 6.18, which devaluated more than 2 percent.
On March 3, Beijing Times reported that new homes sold
in February have reached their lowest over the past seven years.
Residential homes are now being reduced by 5.98 percent
of the original price.
Housing prices in Hangzhou, where they were once as high
as first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou,
has now become the first city to drop its property price in 2014.
On Feb. 18, Beihai Park project in Hangzhou
announced its liquidation.
Many cities followed and dropped its real estate price
by several thousands yuan.
Guangzhou also gives discounts on home purchasing,
the price fell below 10,000 yuan per square meter.
Gong Shengli: “The US Federal Reserves has implemented
a QE ( quantitive easing) monetary policy.
Now RMB has dropped rapidly.
On Feb. 28, RMB dropped 500 points to the US Dollar.
So in China’s market, where does the real estate money come from?”
On March 4, Pan Shiyi, Chairman of commercial real estate
developer at SOHO China,
announced its 2013 annual company report.
He said that he was not very optimistic for the future prospects
of China’s property development market.
The land costs are out priced too high, bringing with it
greater financial risks to the real estate world.
The third party’s deposits, or trust management funds
are expanding.
Yet the quality of the product isn’t very high,
and the result is sure to be an eruption at any time.
Securities Daily reported that SOHO China announced
on Feb. 28,
they will sell SOHO Shanghai Square and
SOHO Jingan Square to the Financial Street Holding.
The total amount of sales will be 5.23 billion yuan (US$853 million)
Experts say that SOHO China have spent a total investment of
4.1 billion yuan (US$669 million).
Apart from the extra cost of management in the past three years,
it can only get 1.13 billion yuan premium in return.
The premium rate is less than 27.4 percent, lower than the industry’s
conservative expectations of 30 percent.
This shows us that Pan Shiyi has lost full confidence in
Shanghai real estate business,
as now he follows what Li Ka-shing does, actively selling
Shanghai’s assets.
Gong Shengli says that the scale of the Chinese economy has
expanded since the recessions occurred,
back then the Central Bank injected 4 trillion yuan (US$570 billiion)
in to the system.
Gong Shengli: “China’s economy weak point is just like this,
it suddenly injects funds, expanding everything in its wake,
including the ever growing bubble.
Thus the risks are much higher than that of any other country.
Because it has neither foundation, nor capital sources.”
Gong Shenglin says that the current funds of real estate came
from the trust company of Bank of China’s large investment.
This year, maturing of trust bonds is more than 10 trillion yuan,
At least 80 percent of the money went into real estate.
Duan Shaoyi, Assistant Director of Beijing Unirule Institute
of Economics, suggests that because there are so many
houses in China, the bubbles already exists.
Although RMB doesn’t devalue, the housing bubbles
will burst, the price will fall.
Niu Dao (chopper), financial commentator says that
when the monetary bubble bursts,
the money that China completely depends upon to stimulate
the economic growth, will have come to a close.
Once it comes to the end of its life expectancy,
China’s true economy will show itself,
The first-tier cities’ home price will fall by
a massive 80 percent.
Interview & Edit/Yiru Post-Production/Zhoutian
本文标签：SOHO中国, 两会, 中共, 京华时报, 国务院, 巩胜利, 政协会议, 新唐人, 潘石屹, 美国, 财经评论, 香港
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